Is the Stock market overvalued - Finally a definitive answer
I have seen a consistent pattern emerge over the last year. (it's actually been going on for more than a year). This pattern is that everyone seems to think the market is overvalued. This can cause some problems as they are reluctant to invest until the market "pulls back." Everyone is anticipating a correction but this correction is apparently a long time coming. I did some searching on Google and found out that the market is indeed overvalued according to TheStreet.com:
- May 2014 - 'Buffett Indicator' Says the Stock Market Is Way Overvalued
We had better sell all of our stocks and abandon the markets for another day.
Oh, wait a minute. What is this? Apparently the markets were overvalued back in January of this year as well, according to The Economist:
- January 2014 - Overvaluation: The Evidence
So what, maybe the markets have been overvalued all year. If we sold in January we would have only missed out on a 2-3% increase. That's nothing compared to the correction that is coming. After all the markets are overvalued.
I'm just curious, let's see what the market was like last year...
It didn't take long for me to find another article from February of 2013 making very similar comments about how the market is "extremely overvalued". This time from Covestor.com:
- February 2013 - Warning: Stocks are overvalued and may fall 10% in 2013
If you had listened to these guys and sold out, you could have missed out on 20-30%+ returns for the year.
As you can see, the only definitive answer about whether or not the market is overvalued is that there really is no definitive answer. Even if the market is overvalued it can continue to go higher for years, becoming even more overvalued. You definitely should not base your buy/sell decisions on these types of articles or experts.
The right way to invest is to invest with a purpose. This means identifying your goals and determining what it takes to achieve them through investing in the financial markets. Have a plan and ignore the shortsightedness of the market forecasters.