SOCGEN: In A Few Months, The Stock Market Will Drop 15%, Then Go Nowhere For Years
I bet it won't SOCGEN.
Does anything else think this is a very specific prediction?
“Between now and the end of the year, any decline in the S&P 500 is likely to be limited given that the Fed is still injecting liquidity. We expect the S&P to be at 1600 by year-end, in line with our technical analyst’s forecast (1560+/-10pts).”
“We expect the drop to accelerate at the start of 2014 as the market starts pricing in the end of asset purchases (i.e. well before the market’s Fed tapering expectation). The S&P 500 should dip to 1450 on our estimates, down c.15% from the peak.”
“From Q2 2014, the S&P 500 should start to recover slowly after a technical rebound (c.+7%), as ‘Growth’ returns to the forefront. We see the S&P 500 at 1600 by the end of the year, so 2014 should be rather flat.”
“In the two to three years that follow, the U.S. equity index should remain relatively flat...”
It is sad that this report will make some investors flee the US Market for the next few years. Don't try to time the market - have a plan and stick to it. Don't make me mention the Behavior Gap again.